#34Larry Rountree III

RB·Missouri·2020 20182.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Larry Rountree III is a 2-year Featured Back for Missouri. Larry's 2020 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 206 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Larry Rountree III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

972 Rush yards14 Rush TD209 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions100 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume92
Explosiveness34
Consistency3
Receiving30

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency3th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Vanderbilt (SP+ -17).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
4	vsAlabama	L19-38	28.3	14	67	4.8	0	—	—	—	-0.09
5	@Tennessee	L12-35	0.9	18	84	4.7	1	1	1	0	0.12
6	@LSU	W45-41	6.0	18	119	6.6	0	—	—	—	0.29
8	vsKentucky	W20-10	2.2	37	126	3.4	2	1	3	0	-0.17
9	@Florida	L17-41	19.8	14	36	2.6	1	6	26	0	-0.16
12	@South Carolina	W17-10	-2.4	21	58	2.8	1	1	4	0	-0.14
13	vsVanderbilt	W41-0	-16.8	21	160	7.6	3	1	23	0	0.56
14	vsArkansas	W50-48	1.6	27	185	6.9	3	1	8	0	0.37
15	vsGeorgia	L14-49	19.1	14	16	1.1	1	4	35	0	-0.07
16	@Mississippi State	L32-51	-1.4	25	121	4.8	2	—	—	—	0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.2%

Passing plays

5.4%

Rushing plays

61.7%

Standard downs

37.4%

Passing downs

20.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.09 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Missouri	1.9	0.250	—	55.2
2020	Missouri	2.0	0.250	—	54.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.