#8Kevin Hogan

QB·Stanford·2015 20146.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kevin Hogan is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Stanford. Kevin's 2014 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 411 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kevin Hogan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

232/352 Comp/Att2792 Pass yards19 Pass TD8 INT65.9% Comp %

Rushing

295 Rush yards5 Rush TD91 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat52
Consistency39
Clutch77

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency39th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.40 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.88 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs UCLA (SP+ 18).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUC Davis	W45-0	—	12/16	204	3	1	83.9	-1	1	-1.07
2	vsUSC	L10-13	17.1	22/30	285	0	0	51.8	24	0	0.27
3	vsArmy	W35-0	-16.9	20/28	216	4	0	85.7	11	0	0.53
5	@Washington	W20-13	7.8	17/26	178	1	1	26.3	53	1	0.15
6	@Notre Dame	L14-17	10.8	18/36	158	0	2	19.6	-16	1	-0.05
7	vsWashington State	W34-17	-1.7	23/35	284	3	0	57.7	-4	0	0.42
8	@Arizona State	L10-26	13.5	19/39	212	0	0	39.7	17	0	0.12
9	vsOregon State	W38-14	3.2	18/27	277	2	2	86.3	39	1	0.61
10	@Oregon	L16-45	24.7	21/29	237	0	1	64.3	42	0	0.15
12	vsUtah	L17-20	8.8	17/27	104	2	0	24.7	-12	0	-0.17
13	@California	W38-17	-0.6	15/20	214	0	1	95.9	46	1	0.66
14	@UCLA	W31-10	17.7	16/19	234	2	0	98.3	46	0	0.88
1	vsMaryland	W45-21	5.7	14/20	189	2	0	90.0	50	0	0.52

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.0%

Passing plays

93.1%

Rushing plays

16.5%

Standard downs

45.9%

Passing downs

61.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Stanford	6.3	0.425	—	188.7
2015	Stanford	11.6	0.629	+0.20	266.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.