#8Kevin Hogan

QB·Stanford·2015 201411.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kevin Hogan is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Stanford. Kevin's 2015 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 375 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kevin Hogan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

206/304 Comp/Att2867 Pass yards27 Pass TD8 INT67.8% Comp %

Rushing

336 Rush yards6 Rush TD85 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency88
Volume100
Dual-Threat94
Consistency83
Clutch60

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Notre Dame (SP+ 22).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	L6-16	0.2	20/35	155	0	1	28.0	-9	0	-0.10
2	vsUCF	W31-7	-15.5	17/29	341	3	0	77.6	12	0	0.58
3	@USC	W41-31	16.8	18/23	279	2	0	98.2	28	0	0.87
4	@Oregon State	W42-24	-10.1	9/14	163	2	1	90.1	2	0	0.48
5	vsArizona	W55-17	4.7	17/19	217	2	0	90.0	1	0	0.63
7	vsUCLA	W56-35	18.6	8/15	131	3	1	94.9	3	0	0.60
8	vsWashington	W31-14	9.7	17/24	290	2	1	77.8	37	0	0.60
9	@Washington State	W30-28	4.2	10/19	86	0	1	61.3	112	2	0.13
10	@Colorado	W42-10	-4.0	17/23	169	2	1	97.1	40	1	0.57
11	vsOregon	L36-38	15.9	28/37	304	2	1	74.9	48	1	0.34
12	vsCalifornia	W35-22	12.1	7/12	96	1	0	51.7	2	0	0.14
13	vsNotre Dame	W38-36	22.4	17/21	269	4	0	96.3	18	0	0.96
14	vsUSC	W41-22	16.8	9/12	144	1	0	78.7	18	1	0.48
1	vsIowa	W45-16	9.3	12/21	223	3	1	88.2	24	1	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

41.2%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

11.2%

Standard downs

32.8%

Passing downs

63.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Stanford	6.3	0.425	—	188.7
2015	Stanford	11.6	0.629	+0.20	266.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.