#7Kenny Hill

QB·TCU·2017 20164.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenny Hill is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for TCU. Kenny's 2016 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 541 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenny Hill's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

269/440 Comp/Att3208 Pass yards17 Pass TD13 INT61.1% Comp %

Rushing

609 Rush yards10 Rush TD125 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch67

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs South Dakota State.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Dakota State	W59-41	—	33/49	439	2	2	86.4	45	3	0.56
2	vsArkansas	L38-41	7.9	36/56	377	1	1	73.5	93	2	0.14
3	vsIowa State	W41-20	0.7	19/30	219	1	0	76.2	28	1	0.46
4	@SMU	W33-3	-10.8	31/45	452	2	1	71.5	0	0	0.45
5	vsOklahoma	L46-52	26.1	26/44	449	5	1	62.9	4	0	0.54
6	@Kansas	W24-23	-15.9	17/32	206	1	3	10.5	36	1	0.14
8	@West Virginia	L10-34	11.3	18/31	148	1	1	23.8	4	0	0.03
9	vsTexas Tech	L24-27	3.7	16/29	160	0	1	41.5	35	0	0.11
10	@Baylor	W62-22	11.3	17/30	244	1	0	79.0	85	0	0.31
12	vsOklahoma State	L6-31	16.4	18/27	166	1	2	60.5	79	0	0.27
13	@Texas	W31-9	10.6	15/29	150	0	1	48.2	78	2	0.25
14	vsKansas State	L6-30	8.2	5/11	52	0	0	33.4	50	0	0.25
1	vsGeorgia	L23-31	9.3	18/27	146	2	0	66.1	72	1	0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.0%

Passing plays

87.7%

Rushing plays

21.9%

Standard downs

51.8%

Passing downs

64.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.63

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	TCU	4.0	0.347	—	185.3
2017	TCU	7.2	0.450	+0.10	225.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.