#7Kenny Hill

QB·TCU·2017 20167.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenny Hill is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for TCU. Kenny's 2017 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 481 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenny Hill's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

269/400 Comp/Att3152 Pass yards23 Pass TD8 INT67.3% Comp %

Rushing

325 Rush yards5 Rush TD100 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts32 Punt yards32.0 Yards/punt32 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat71
Consistency75
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Kansas (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsJackson State	W63-0	—	18/23	206	4	1	95.1	8	0	0.56
2	@Arkansas	W28-7	2.1	21/31	166	0	1	59.9	35	0	0.04
3	vsSMU	W56-36	-2.9	24/30	365	4	0	97.9	3	0	0.87
4	@Oklahoma State	W44-31	19.1	22/33	228	1	1	62.5	15	0	0.24
6	vsWest Virginia	W31-24	5.6	15/28	188	1	0	49.4	28	1	0.33
7	@Kansas State	W26-6	10.9	27/37	297	0	0	82.4	13	1	0.39
8	vsKansas	W43-0	-14.8	19/26	278	5	0	96.6	14	0	0.89
9	@Iowa State	L7-14	7.5	12/25	135	0	2	7.4	-5	0	-0.19
10	vsTexas	W24-7	10.6	18/26	146	0	0	47.0	43	0	0.05
11	@Oklahoma	L20-38	25.5	13/28	270	1	0	—	40	1	0.38
13	vsBaylor	W45-22	-1.4	26/36	325	3	0	82.2	20	1	0.52
14	vsOklahoma	L17-41	25.5	27/37	234	2	1	75.9	51	0	0.23
1	vsStanford	W39-37	15.8	27/40	314	2	2	66.2	60	1	0.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.6%

Passing plays

97.4%

Rushing plays

17.9%

Standard downs

48.4%

Passing downs

69.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	TCU	4.0	0.347	—	185.3
2017	TCU	7.2	0.450	+0.10	225.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.