#2Kendall Hinton

WR·Wake Forest·20152.4 pts line value1st Round

Kendall Hinton is a Workhorse Receiver WR for Wake Forest. Kendall's 2015 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 241 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kendall Hinton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

93/179 Comp/Att929 Pass yards4 Pass TD5 INT52.0% Comp %

Rushing

390 Rush yards7 Rush TD93 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs WR peers

Efficiency88
Volume100
Explosiveness0
Consistency62
Pass-Down51

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.40 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Notre Dame (SP+ 22).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	vsElon	W41-3	—	0.27	0.23	0.53
3	@Army	W17-14	-21.7	0.22	-0.00	0.64
4	vsIndiana	L24-31	0.4	0.01	-0.16	0.57
5	vsFlorida State	L16-24	23.2	0.09	0.02	0.38
7	@North Carolina	L14-50	20.0	-0.22	-0.42	0.01
8	vsNC State	L17-35	9.6	0.13	-0.09	0.68
9	vsLouisville	L19-20	13.2	0.09	0.13	-0.04
11	@Notre Dame	L7-28	22.4	0.40	—	0.40
12	@Clemson	L13-33	24.0	0.17	-0.53	0.87

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

41.3%

Passing plays

56.3%

Rushing plays

25.4%

Standard downs

36.3%

Passing downs

49.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.07 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 9 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.