#7Justin Joly

TE·NC State·2025

Justin Joly is a Versatile TE for NC State. Justin's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 62 plays — a elite rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Joly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

49 Receptions489 Rec yards7 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume24
Explosiveness20
Consistency65
Pass-Down6

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.88 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Florida State (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2020	59	0.300	0.0	17.7
Evan Svoboda	Wyoming	2024	75	0.290	0.5	21.8
Jordan Myers	Rice	2021	59	0.270	0.2	15.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsEast Carolina	W24-17	8.0	5	27	5.4	0	9	-0.01
2	vsVirginia	W35-31	11.1	4	41	10.3	0	21	-0.13
3	@Wake Forest	W34-24	5.7	4	22	5.5	2	8	1.59
4	@Duke	L33-45	6.6	5	63	12.6	0	18	0.24
5	vsVirginia Tech	L21-23	-10.1	6	60	10.0	0	22	0.04
6	vsCampbell	W56-10	—	4	43	10.8	1	15	1.68
7	@Notre Dame	L7-36	24.4	2	8	4.0	0	6	0.31
9	@Pittsburgh	L34-53	8.4	6	101	16.8	2	59	1.24
12	@Miami	L7-41	20.7	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.18
13	vsFlorida State	W21-11	7.2	5	66	13.2	1	27	1.88
14	vsNorth Carolina	W42-19	-6.6	5	30	6.0	1	19	0.43
20	vsMemphis	W31-7	7.6	2	21	10.5	0	17	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.4%

Passing plays

16.4%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

7.8%

Passing downs

9.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.68
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.58 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).