#13Justin Holman

QB·UCF·20146.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Justin Holman is a Dual-Threat QB for UCF. Justin's 2014 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 492 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Holman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

223/392 Comp/Att2952 Pass yards23 Pass TD14 INT56.9% Comp %

Rushing

189 Rush yards3 Rush TD112 Carries1.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat75
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Penn State (SP+ 9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsPenn State	L24-26	9.2	9/14	204	1	0	92.4	-5	2	0.77
3	@Missouri	L10-38	19.3	22/36	209	1	2	48.8	25	0	0.17
4	vsBethune-Cookman	W41-7	—	6/11	145	2	0	58.7	29	0	0.36
6	@Houston	W17-12	5.4	6/18	101	2	0	30.5	32	0	0.18
7	vsBYU	W31-24	10.2	30/51	326	2	2	67.7	26	1	0.28
8	vsTulane	W20-13	-15.0	9/17	113	1	2	21.0	-2	0	-0.18
9	vsTemple	W34-14	-4.7	25/39	336	2	0	82.7	8	0	0.40
10	@UConn	L29-37	-14.1	22/42	284	2	4	26.3	4	0	0.07
12	vsTulsa	W31-7	-15.8	16/27	291	3	0	84.3	16	0	0.50
13	vsSMU	W53-7	-21.2	15/22	228	2	2	86.0	17	0	0.53
14	@South Florida	W16-0	-11.8	20/29	150	1	1	67.1	4	0	0.37
15	@East Carolina	W32-30	8.5	20/33	274	1	0	52.8	8	0	0.42
1	vsNC State	L27-34	8.1	23/53	291	3	1	49.7	27	0	0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

94.5%

Rushing plays

17.0%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

73.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.