#27Joshua Kelley

RB·UCLA·2019 20182.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Joshua Kelley is a 2-year Featured Back for UCLA. Joshua's 2019 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 227 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joshua Kelley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1060 Rush yards12 Rush TD229 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions71 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume82
Explosiveness32
Consistency65
Receiving22

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsSan Diego State	L14-23	2.0	15	53	3.5	1	2	2	0	0.10
3	vsOklahoma	L14-48	22.9	18	51	2.8	0	—	—	—	-0.22
4	@Washington State	W67-63	11.1	20	90	4.5	0	2	19	1	0.13
5	@Arizona	L17-20	-8.0	27	127	4.7	1	1	9	0	0.23
6	vsOregon State	L31-48	-0.7	21	74	3.5	1	1	4	0	0.21
8	@Stanford	W34-16	-4.7	18	176	9.8	1	2	13	0	0.29
9	vsArizona State	W42-32	6.3	34	164	4.8	4	—	—	—	0.25
10	vsColorado	W31-14	-4.1	23	126	5.5	2	—	—	—	0.15
12	@Utah	L3-49	19.5	19	78	4.1	0	1	12	0	0.02
13	@USC	L35-52	13.1	15	45	3.0	1	1	9	0	0.03
14	vsCalifornia	L18-28	-2.6	19	76	4.0	1	1	3	0	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.6%

Passing plays

3.5%

Rushing plays

54.2%

Standard downs

32.9%

Passing downs

19.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.13 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	UCLA	4.4	0.360	—	85.7
2019	UCLA	2.0	0.240	-0.12	58.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.