#27Joshua Kelley

RB·UCLA·2019 20184.4 pts line value1st Round

Joshua Kelley is a 2-year Featured Back for UCLA. Joshua's 2018 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 251 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joshua Kelley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1243 Rush yards12 Rush TD225 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions193 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency50
Volume91
Explosiveness50
Consistency68
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Colorado (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2014	262	0.380	5.3	99.6
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCincinnati	L17-26	5.4	6	20	3.3	0	3	19	0	0.04
2	@Oklahoma	L21-49	24.9	5	7	1.4	0	—	—	—	-0.05
5	@Colorado	L16-38	-0.7	12	124	10.3	0	3	10	0	0.69
6	vsWashington	L24-31	19.9	20	125	6.3	1	3	39	0	0.45
7	@California	W37-7	3.9	30	157	5.2	3	2	8	0	0.33
8	vsArizona	W31-30	3.6	31	136	4.4	1	4	43	0	0.07
9	vsUtah	L10-41	16.8	16	90	5.6	1	2	11	0	0.15
10	@Oregon	L21-42	7.3	26	161	6.2	1	6	32	0	0.41
11	@Arizona State	L28-31	5.0	21	79	3.8	1	2	17	0	-0.13
12	vsUSC	W34-27	9.7	40	289	7.2	2	—	—	—	0.29
13	vsStanford	L42-49	13.0	18	55	3.1	2	2	14	0	0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.7%

Passing plays

7.4%

Rushing plays

58.6%

Standard downs

37.5%

Passing downs

20.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: -0.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	UCLA	4.4	0.360	—	85.7
2019	UCLA	2.0	0.240	-0.12	58.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.