#5Johnny Jefferson

RB·Baylor·20152.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Johnny Jefferson is a Explosive Back for Baylor. Johnny's 2015 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 116 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Johnny Jefferson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1000 Rush yards8 Rush TD136 Carries7.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions17 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.3 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns24 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency78
Volume43
Explosiveness88
Consistency55
Receiving33

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (78th percentile).
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.43 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs SMU (SP+ -18).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@SMU	W56-21	-17.5	2	28	14.0	0	—	—	—	1.45
2	vsLamar	W66-31	—	12	121	10.1	1	—	—	—	0.55
4	vsRice	W70-17	-14.6	9	86	9.6	1	1	11	0	1.00
5	vsTexas Tech	W63-35	4.5	12	39	3.3	1	—	—	—	0.14
6	@Kansas	W66-7	-21.3	15	79	5.3	1	2	2	0	0.28
7	vsWest Virginia	W62-38	12.9	7	19	2.7	0	—	—	—	-0.47
8	vsIowa State	W45-27	-0.3	4	27	6.8	0	—	—	—	-0.28
12	@Oklahoma State	W45-35	9.9	17	62	3.6	0	—	—	—	-0.07
13	@TCU	L21-28	19.0	12	82	6.8	0	—	—	—	0.23
14	vsTexas	L17-23	3.7	23	158	6.9	1	1	4	0	0.28
1	vsNorth Carolina	W49-38	20.0	23	299	13.0	3	—	—	—	1.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.9%

Passing plays

2.7%

Rushing plays

21.7%

Standard downs

15.5%

Passing downs

13.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.05 / 0.46

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.