#6Joey Aguilar

QB·App State·2025 20238.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Joey Aguilar is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for App State. Joey's 2023 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 514 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joey Aguilar's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

292/459 Comp/Att3754 Pass yards33 Pass TD10 INT63.6% Comp %

Rushing

249 Rush yards3 Rush TD81 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat83
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Gardner-Webb.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGardner-Webb	W45-24	—	11/13	174	4	0	96.3	8	0	0.95
2	@North Carolina	L34-40	7.4	22/43	275	2	1	71.4	42	0	0.52
3	vsEast Carolina	W43-28	-12.8	17/29	241	3	1	35.2	13	1	0.55
4	@Wyoming	L19-22	-3.6	22/40	200	0	1	61.6	20	0	0.27
5	@UL Monroe	W41-40	-21.6	27/39	335	3	2	61.5	49	0	0.51
7	vsCoastal Carolina	L24-27	-1.2	18/31	305	2	0	74.3	6	0	0.30
8	@Old Dominion	L21-28	-10.1	22/31	252	2	0	75.8	18	1	0.45
9	vsSouthern Miss	W48-38	-14.4	23/33	391	4	1	70.9	43	0	0.77
10	vsMarshall	W31-9	-9.0	19/26	226	3	0	88.5	44	0	0.57
11	@Georgia State	W42-14	-6.8	14/21	255	3	1	82.8	20	0	0.72
12	@James Madison	W26-23	11.8	28/46	318	3	1	80.1	0	0	0.27
13	vsGeorgia Southern	W55-27	-5.2	23/36	296	4	1	81.4	11	0	0.39
14	@Troy	L23-49	9.8	28/39	275	0	0	61.7	-39	0	0.17
20	vsMiami (OH)	W13-9	2.8	18/32	211	0	1	72.7	14	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.7%

Passing plays

97.0%

Rushing plays

12.9%

Standard downs

47.1%

Passing downs

65.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.73
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	App State	8.2	0.519	—	259.8
2025	Tennessee	8.4	0.444	-0.08	199.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.