#16Jared Goff

QB·California·2015 2014 20131.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jared Goff is a 3-year Clutch Passer for California. Jared's 2013 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 469 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Jared's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jared Goff's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9154
National rank: #218
High school: Marin Catholic
Hometown: Greenbrae, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2013 Production

Passing

320/531 Comp/Att3508 Pass yards18 Pass TD10 INT60.3% Comp %

Rushing

-62 Rush yards1 Rush TD59 Carries-1.1 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts121 Punt yards40.3 Yards/punt44 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat14
Consistency61
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.47 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Portland State.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthwestern	L30-44	4.2	39/64	450	2	3	42.3	-18	0	0.26
2	vsPortland State	W37-30	—	33/51	485	2	0	77.2	-1	1	0.47
3	vsOhio State	L34-52	28.4	31/53	371	3	1	56.8	2	0	0.07
5	@Oregon	L16-55	28.7	3/7	11	0	0	0.7	-11	0	-0.33
6	vsWashington State	L22-44	8.2	33/59	504	2	1	49.5	-17	0	0.24
7	@UCLA	L10-37	20.0	26/43	215	0	1	14.1	-23	0	0.01
8	vsOregon State	L17-49	11.9	21/31	220	0	1	26.8	-17	0	0.19
9	@Washington	L17-41	20.5	32/54	336	1	0	41.5	-3	0	0.15
10	vsArizona	L28-33	14.6	34/56	289	4	2	61.9	18	0	0.12
11	vsUSC	L28-62	22.5	35/49	260	3	0	60.5	-1	0	0.07
12	@Colorado	L24-41	-0.7	23/45	173	0	1	35.4	9	0	0.10
13	@Stanford	L13-63	21.7	10/19	194	1	0	77.0	—	—	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.5%

Passing plays

83.0%

Rushing plays

7.6%

Standard downs

47.2%

Passing downs

63.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.03
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	California	1.5	0.200	—	90.0
2014	California	12.1	0.510	+0.31	275.4
2015	California	15.7	0.610	+0.10	341.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.