#11Jackson Arnold

QB·Oklahoma·2024

Jackson Arnold is a Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma. Jackson's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 349 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jackson Arnold's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

154/246 Comp/Att1421 Pass yards12 Pass TD3 INT62.6% Comp %

Rushing

444 Rush yards3 Rush TD150 Carries3.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts39 Punt yards39.0 Yards/punt39 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat97
Consistency29
Clutch97

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency29th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Maine.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTemple	W51-3	-20.3	17/25	141	4	0	44.3	34	0	0.20
2	vsHouston	W16-12	-8.2	19/32	174	2	1	37.5	28	0	0.05
3	vsTulane	W34-19	5.7	18/29	169	1	1	77.9	97	2	0.23
4	vsTennessee	L15-25	22.0	7/16	54	0	1	1.3	-21	0	-0.47
8	vsSouth Carolina	L9-35	16.9	18/36	225	1	0	19.4	-29	0	0.06
9	@Ole Miss	L14-26	27.9	22/31	182	2	0	49.7	39	0	0.05
10	vsMaine	W59-14	—	15/21	224	2	0	77.5	45	1	0.77
11	@Missouri	L23-30	14.0	15/24	74	0	0	26.0	45	0	-0.08
13	vsAlabama	W24-3	25.0	9/11	68	0	0	82.4	131	0	0.22
14	@LSU	L17-37	15.9	14/21	110	0	0	69.6	75	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.6%

Passing plays

88.4%

Rushing plays

30.5%

Standard downs

49.2%

Passing downs

71.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.02 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).