#11Durell Robinson

RB·UConn·2024

Durell Robinson is a Explosive Back for UConn. Durell's 2024 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 91 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Durell Robinson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

731 Rush yards8 Rush TD107 Carries6.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions75 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume41
Explosiveness76
Consistency63
Receiving47

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.05 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Maryland	L7-50	-3.9	7	34	4.9	0	2	4	0	-0.36
2	vsMerrimack	W63-17	—	10	94	9.4	1	2	10	0	0.60
3	@Duke	L21-26	5.6	2	12	6.0	0	—	—	—	0.08
4	vsFlorida Atlantic	W48-14	-12.7	16	156	9.8	2	—	—	—	1.05
5	vsBuffalo	W47-3	-4.0	8	73	9.1	0	—	—	—	0.26
6	vsTemple	W29-20	-20.3	12	52	4.3	1	2	1	0	0.04
8	vsWake Forest	L20-23	-5.7	4	12	3.0	0	3	21	0	0.06
9	vsRice	W17-10	-11.4	15	132	8.8	1	—	—	—	0.44
10	vsGeorgia State	W34-27	-17.9	6	21	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.49
11	@UAB	W31-23	-11.3	13	59	4.5	1	1	10	0	0.29
13	@Syracuse	L24-31	5.5	3	3	1.0	0	1	10	0	-0.04
14	@Massachusetts	W47-42	-21.9	11	83	7.5	1	3	19	0	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.3%

Passing plays

3.7%

Rushing plays

23.4%

Standard downs

15.6%

Passing downs

11.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.35
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.43

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).