#17Cody Fajardo

QB·Nevada·20133.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Cody Fajardo is a Dual-Threat QB for Nevada. Cody's 2013 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 445 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cody Fajardo's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

243/358 Comp/Att2668 Pass yards13 Pass TD3 INT67.9% Comp %

Rushing

621 Rush yards8 Rush TD141 Carries4.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat62
Consistency89
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency89th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UC Davis.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@UCLA	L20-58	20.0	19/32	164	0	0	77.4	106	2	0.29
2	vsUC Davis	W36-7	—	18/21	239	2	0	96.3	36	1	0.68
5	vsAir Force	W45-42	-16.9	38/54	389	3	0	93.2	81	2	0.44
6	@San Diego State	L44-51	-4.8	33/51	393	2	0	61.8	49	0	0.31
8	@Boise State	L17-34	11.3	22/29	208	0	0	38.9	12	0	0.43
9	vsUNLV	L22-27	-10.1	24/40	357	2	1	36.9	29	0	0.25
10	@Fresno State	L23-41	8.8	14/24	206	2	1	52.3	98	0	0.39
11	@Colorado State	L17-38	3.0	31/46	247	0	0	75.5	87	1	0.21
12	vsSan José State	W38-16	-5.1	21/28	206	1	0	79.3	104	1	0.30
14	vsBYU	L23-28	10.0	23/33	259	1	1	74.2	19	1	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.7%

Passing plays

93.9%

Rushing plays

25.9%

Standard downs

47.6%

Passing downs

72.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.