#3CJ Brown

WR·Arkansas·2025

CJ Brown is a Versatile WR for Arkansas. CJ's 2025 season produced 13.2 total EPA across 46 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

28 Receptions319 Rec yards3 Rec TD11.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume18
Explosiveness29
Consistency42
Pass-Down76

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency42th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.35 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.09 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Alabama A&M.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama A&M	W52-7	—	4	49	12.3	2	16	1.09
2	vsArkansas State	W56-14	-8.8	3	36	12.0	0	18	0.59
3	@Ole Miss	L35-41	24.0	2	26	13.0	0	26	-0.38
4	@Memphis	L31-32	7.6	2	31	15.5	0	21	0.20
7	@Tennessee	L31-34	15.0	3	50	16.7	0	20	0.31
8	vsTexas A&M	L42-45	20.7	5	38	7.6	1	15	0.27
9	vsAuburn	L24-33	11.6	2	6	3.0	0	9	0.04
10	vsMississippi State	L35-38	4.1	2	15	7.5	0	11	0.22
12	@LSU	L22-23	10.3	1	16	16.0	0	16	-0.27
13	@Texas	L37-52	16.2	2	23	11.5	0	16	0.11
14	vsMissouri	L17-31	14.4	2	29	14.5	0	15	-0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.2%

Passing plays

12.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.0%

Passing downs

6.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).