#5Caleb Douglas

WR·Texas Tech·2025

Caleb Douglas is a Versatile WR for Texas Tech. Caleb's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 95 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Caleb Douglas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

53 Receptions830 Rec yards7 Rec TD15.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume27
Explosiveness58
Consistency57
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.82 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Oregon State (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W67-7	—	3	44	14.7	0	19	-0.06
2	vsKent State	W62-14	-19.3	2	37	18.5	0	29	0.17
3	vsOregon State	W45-14	-15.9	1	61	61.0	1	61	1.82
4	@Utah	W34-10	22.2	4	68	17.0	0	33	0.43
6	@Houston	W35-11	7.4	7	114	16.3	0	33	0.56
7	vsKansas	W42-17	4.1	6	55	9.2	0	26	0.28
8	@Arizona State	L22-26	3.9	4	19	4.8	0	7	-0.43
9	vsOklahoma State	W42-0	-15.1	5	98	19.6	1	42	0.78
10	@Kansas State	W43-20	7.0	8	82	10.3	2	26	0.77
11	vsBYU	W29-7	15.9	2	12	6.0	1	9	0.14
12	vsUCF	W48-9	-1.2	5	90	18.0	0	32	0.80
14	@West Virginia	W49-0	-6.8	5	127	25.4	2	50	1.58
15	vsBYU	W34-7	15.9	1	23	23.0	0	23	-0.70

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.4%

Passing plays

19.7%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

8.5%

Passing downs

11.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.96
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).