#14Bryce Petty

QB·Baylor·2014 20133.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Bryce Petty is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Baylor. Bryce's 2013 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 394 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryce Petty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

250/403 Comp/Att4200 Pass yards32 Pass TD3 INT62.0% Comp %

Rushing

209 Rush yards14 Rush TD94 Carries2.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat32
Consistency81
Clutch85

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Buffalo (SP+ -9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWofford	W69-3	—	19/24	312	2	0	94.2	3	0	0.52
2	vsBuffalo	W70-13	-9.0	13/16	338	2	0	99.7	8	1	0.81
4	vsUL Monroe	W70-7	-26.2	18/27	351	4	0	99.2	26	1	0.24
6	vsWest Virginia	W73-42	-0.9	17/25	347	2	1	98.3	23	1	0.63
7	@Kansas State	W35-25	21.7	12/21	332	3	0	79.1	-15	1	0.13
8	vsIowa State	W71-7	-3.8	23/31	343	2	0	96.5	6	1	0.58
9	@Kansas	W59-14	-9.7	20/32	430	3	0	91.6	22	1	0.52
11	vsOklahoma	W41-12	19.6	13/26	204	3	0	75.6	45	2	0.13
12	vsTexas Tech	W63-34	14.0	17/31	335	3	0	75.6	9	2	0.25
13	@Oklahoma State	L17-49	21.8	28/48	359	2	0	67.8	46	0	0.24
14	@TCU	W41-38	12.4	19/38	206	2	1	45.2	-5	1	0.13
15	vsTexas	W30-10	10.5	21/37	287	2	0	56.7	24	0	0.31
1	vsUCF	L42-52	12.3	30/47	356	2	1	60.0	17	3	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.9%

Passing plays

89.6%

Rushing plays

11.1%

Standard downs

38.2%

Passing downs

58.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Baylor	3.3	0.264	—	108.4
2014	Baylor	12.6	0.542	+0.28	294.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.