Blake Watson is a Pass-Catching Back for Memphis. Blake's 2023 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 234 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Blake Watson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2023 Production
Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency20
- Volume77
- Explosiveness60
- Consistency61
- Receiving75
Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Temple (SP+ -21).
NIL Market Tier· 2023
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.19
- Passing downs
- 0.57
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.70 / 0.13
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).