#0Aveon Smith

QB·Miami (OH)·2023

Aveon Smith is a Clutch Passer for Miami (OH). Aveon's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 152 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Aveon Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

48/96 Comp/Att638 Pass yards2 Pass TD2 INT50.0% Comp %

Rushing

280 Rush yards1 Rush TD75 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume92
Dual-Threat39
Consistency0
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.46 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Delaware State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Miami	L3-38	9.6	1/3	37	0	0	6.4	-1	0	-0.42
3	@Cincinnati	W31-24	-6.8	—	—	—	—	—	0	0	-0.96
4	vsDelaware State	W62-20	—	0/2	0	0	0	99.9	48	0	0.57
8	vsToledo	L17-21	3.7	3/7	23	0	0	2.8	2	0	-0.19
9	@Ohio	W30-16	-1.6	7/11	103	1	0	32.2	22	1	0.25
11	vsAkron	W19-0	-21.6	8/17	50	0	0	20.8	42	0	-0.04
12	vsBuffalo	W23-10	-15.2	9/16	146	0	0	30.5	60	0	0.27
13	@Ball State	W17-15	-14.9	14/24	170	1	2	23.5	8	0	0.52
14	vsToledo	W23-14	3.7	6/16	109	0	0	44.4	99	0	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.3%

Passing plays

49.2%

Rushing plays

21.9%

Standard downs

30.0%

Passing downs

36.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).