#3Alex Collins

RB·Arkansas·2015 20131.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Alex Collins is a 2-year Featured Back for Arkansas. Alex's 2013 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 180 plays — a developing rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2013, Alex has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alex Collins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9805
National rank: #40
High school: South Plantation
Hometown: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2013 Production

Rushing

1026 Rush yards4 Rush TD190 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions63 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume74
Explosiveness48
Consistency3
Receiving24

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency3th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Texas A&M (SP+ 20).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsLouisiana	W34-14	-12.5	21	131	6.2	0	—	—	—	0.34
2	vsSamford	W31-21	—	24	172	7.2	1	—	—	—	0.30
3	vsSouthern Miss	W24-3	-24.5	25	115	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.04
4	@Rutgers	L24-28	-8.1	16	63	3.9	0	1	9	0	-0.05
5	vsTexas A&M	L33-45	20.4	14	116	8.3	1	1	4	0	0.39
6	@Florida	L10-30	9.0	13	54	4.2	0	5	45	0	0.01
7	vsSouth Carolina	L7-52	19.8	10	69	6.9	1	1	6	0	0.10
8	@Alabama	L0-52	34.1	18	77	4.3	0	1	0	0	-0.14
10	vsAuburn	L17-35	25.2	18	92	5.1	0	—	—	—	0.07
11	@Ole Miss	L24-34	12.4	10	57	5.7	0	2	-1	0	0.08
13	vsMississippi State	L17-24	10.7	10	52	5.2	0	—	—	—	0.05
14	@LSU	L27-31	28.7	11	28	2.5	0	—	—	—	-0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.0%

Passing plays

3.5%

Rushing plays

40.9%

Standard downs

29.2%

Passing downs

19.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.01 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Arkansas	1.2	0.060	—	9.7
2015	Arkansas	4.0	0.310	+0.25	84.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.