Ahmad Hardy is a 2-year Featured Back for UL Monroe. Ahmad's 2024 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 241 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ahmad Hardy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2024
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.8400
- National rank
- #1,919
- High school
- Lawrence County
- Hometown
- Monticello, MS
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2024 Production
Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency3
- Volume100
- Explosiveness54
- Consistency64
- Receiving16
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 0.47 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -26).
NIL Market Tier· 2024
On3 valuation ↗Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.07
- Passing downs
- 0.60
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.56 / 0.18
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.