Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at Miami (OH): 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 60th at stuffing runs at the line. Miami (OH) projects no clear way in against Ohio. Ohio is also 32nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 72nd.
How
OHIOattacks
M-OH
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
OHIO#4 of 138M-OH#60 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
OHIO#32 of 138M-OH#72 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#24 of 138M-OH#62 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#24projected
- Offenserunning it#25projected
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is in year 13 under Chuck Martin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 31st at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 123rd at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 115th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −34.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami (OH) has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#123projected
- Offensefirst and second down#115projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#113projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1259, OHIO Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH +0.8 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO130th130thM-OHM-OH49th126thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO128th135thM-OHM-OH57th126thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO80th57thM-OHM-OH114th126thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO46th125thM-OHM-OH86th137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO21st126thM-OHM-OH21st107thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 33–30–1 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | -11.2 (#114) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -6 / +6 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 1.27 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 4.92 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 45% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
The model projects Ohio by 0.8.
What time is Ohio vs. Miami (OH) and what channel is it on?
Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET, at Yager Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →