Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Iowa State gets at Baylor: 55th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 106th at stuffing runs at the line. Baylor projects no clear way in against Iowa State.
How
ISUattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
ISU14.5%#55 of 138BAY23.5%#106 of 138
The two teams
Iowa State
Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The strengths are defensive, led by 31st at shutting down the ground game. The way in is 104th at moving the ball on the ground.
Iowa State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground30%#31 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.17#32 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.10#33 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground31%#104 of 138
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#17 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line23.5%#106 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, ISU Elo 1592 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -10.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ISU100th22ndBAYBAY107th23rdISUThrough the air
ISU122nd43rdBAYBAY20th43rdISUOn the ground
ISU107th33rdBAYBAY69th28thISUStaying on the field
ISU96th99thBAYBAY82nd51stISUTaking care of it
ISU21st22ndBAYBAY124th45thISU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBaylor leads 12–11 · Iowa State has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| ISU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.4 (#66) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Iowa State vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa State vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 10.2.
What time is Iowa State vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →