Wagner vs. Lehigh: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Wagner

0013

Lehigh0-1

▸0049

Final

Goodman Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WAGN	0	0	6	7	13
LEHI	21	21	7	0	49

WAGNTeam statsLEHI

249Total yards274

154Pass84

95Rush190

18First downs15

5-133rd down4-11

4Turnovers0

31:00Possession29:00

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:58WAGNJaylen Bonelli 14 Yd pass from Damien Mazil (Ryan Liszner Kick)13–49
• Q3 7:09WAGNRickey Spruill 11 Yd pass from Damien Mazil (Ryan Liszner PAT failed)6–49
• Q3 13:22LEHIMason Humphrey 37 Yd pass from Dante Perri (Nick Garrido Kick)0–49
• Q2 0:48LEHINick Peltekian 27 Yd Interception Return (Canaan Kimball Kick)0–42
• Q2 1:03LEHIDante Perri 2 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–35
• Q2 7:25LEHIHayden Johnson 45 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:52LEHILuke Yoder 11 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:22LEHIJaden Green 6 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:59LEHIGeoffrey Jamiel 16 Yd pass from Dante Perri (Nick Garrido Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

LEHI −13.5

Against the number

LEHI covered

line LEHI −13.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LEHI 100%50%WAGN 100%

Kickoff134 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

LEHI (top)WAGN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LEHI 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

LEHI −13.5

Closing total

43.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WAGN 13 – 49 LEHI

Leaders

Wagner

• PassDamien Mazil 18/31, 154 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
• RushSekou Kamau 14 CAR, 55 YDS
• RecJaylen Bonelli 5 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD

Lehigh

• PassDante Perri 6/8, 84 YDS, 2 TD
• RushLuke Yoder 9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMason Humphrey 2 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

114

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LEHI up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 210 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

LEHI went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArmy vs Delaware State57-0WWashington State vs Northern Colorado64-21WTexas vs Texas Tech57-7WFlorida vs McNeese50-7WMontana State vs Eastern Washington57-14

Fourth downs

14 calls

LEHI gave up 2.4 points to the model on fourth down.WAGN 6/7 · LEHI 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Wagner vs. Lehigh?

Wagner 13, Lehigh 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (LEHI) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WAGN

LEHI

41%

Success rate

36%

0.10

EPA / pass

0.76

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.11

41%

Early-down success

33%

55%

Pass success

50%

26%

Rush success

33%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

6%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

52%

Pass rate

20%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

WAGN

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

LEHI

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WAGN		LEHI
249	Total yards	274
154	Passing yards	84
95	Rushing yards	190
18	First downs	15
5-13	3rd down	4-11
1-2	4th down	1-2
18/32	Comp/Att	6/8
4.8	Yards per pass	10.5
2.9	Yards per rush	4.6
4	Turnovers	0
8-58	Penalties	4-25
31:00	Possession	29:00

Fourth downs

14 calls

WAGN

6/7 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

LEHI

3/6 with the model

−2.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 3:02 LEHI punt on 4th & 2 at WAGN 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WAGN 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LEHI 6/11 scoring drives

LEHITD1 pl, 6 yds· opp 6Q1

WAGNPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 30Q1

LEHIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 46Q1

LEHITD3 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q1

WAGNINT1 pl, -10 yds· own 22Q1

WAGNINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q1

LEHITD6 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1

WAGNPUNT5 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

LEHIPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 26Q1

WAGNTD1 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

WAGNPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 26Q2

LEHITD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

WAGNDOWNS6 pl, 5 yds· own 19Q2

LEHITD6 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q2

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

LEHITD3 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3

WAGNTD12 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

LEHIPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 29Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 11Q3

LEHIDOWNS10 pl, 35 yds· own 42Q3

WAGNTD12 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4

LEHIPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q4

WAGNUncateg9 pl, 46 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:58WAGNJaylen Bonelli 14 Yd pass from Damien Mazil (Ryan Liszner Kick)13–49
• Q3 7:09WAGNRickey Spruill 11 Yd pass from Damien Mazil (Ryan Liszner PAT failed)6–49
• Q3 13:22LEHIMason Humphrey 37 Yd pass from Dante Perri (Nick Garrido Kick)0–49
• Q2 0:48LEHINick Peltekian 27 Yd Interception Return (Canaan Kimball Kick)0–42
• Q2 1:03LEHIDante Perri 2 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–35
• Q2 7:25LEHIHayden Johnson 45 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:52LEHILuke Yoder 11 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:22LEHIJaden Green 6 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:59LEHIGeoffrey Jamiel 16 Yd pass from Dante Perri (Nick Garrido Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →