Texas Tech vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 0:38TEXQuintrevion Wisner 10 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–57
- Q3 3:26TEXJett Bush 43 Yd Interception Return (Bert Auburn Kick)7–50
- Q3 4:44TEXXavier Worthy 19 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)7–43
- Q3 9:15TEXBert Auburn 54 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q3 14:46TEXKeilan Robinson 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Bert Auburn Kick)7–33
- Q2 0:00TEXBert Auburn 44 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q2 2:44TEXBert Auburn 26 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 10:07TEXBert Auburn 37 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 14:50TEXJaydon Blue 69 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:29TTUBehren Morton 2 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:15TEXBert Auburn 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:29TEXKeilan Robinson 10 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBehren Morton 19/36, 88 YDS, 3 INT
- RushTahj Brooks 19 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecCoy Eakin 4 REC, 27 YDS
- PassQuinn Ewers 17/26, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaydon Blue 10 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Worthy 4 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 209 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:29TEX +10%
Keilan Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
- Q1 0:29TTU +9%
Behren Morton run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
- Q2 14:50TEX +9%
Jaydon Blue run for 69 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Texas?
Texas Tech 7, Texas 57.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TTU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Total yards | 528 |
| 88 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 302 |
| 14 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 2.4 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 9-74 |
| 27:00 | Possession | 33:00 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:54 TEX punt on 4th & 11 at TTU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:38TEXQuintrevion Wisner 10 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–57
- Q3 3:26TEXJett Bush 43 Yd Interception Return (Bert Auburn Kick)7–50
- Q3 4:44TEXXavier Worthy 19 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)7–43
- Q3 9:15TEXBert Auburn 54 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q3 14:46TEXKeilan Robinson 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Bert Auburn Kick)7–33
- Q2 0:00TEXBert Auburn 44 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q2 2:44TEXBert Auburn 26 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 10:07TEXBert Auburn 37 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 14:50TEXJaydon Blue 69 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:29TTUBehren Morton 2 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:15TEXBert Auburn 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:29TEXKeilan Robinson 10 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1917, TTU Elo 1613 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -14.6 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas leads 55–18 · 34% have been one-possession games
| TTU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#52) | CORE overall | +26.0 (#7) |
| -3 / -6 | offense / defense | +12 / -14 |
| 1.98 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 1.47 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →