Northern Colorado vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northern Colorado
Washington State2-0
▸Final
Gesa Field
NORTTeam statsWSU
366Total yards718
208Pass489
158Rush229
16First downs33
5-133rd down8-10
0Turnovers1
29:11Possession30:49
- Q4 11:36NORTDarius Stewart 52 Yd pass from Jacob Sirmon (Hunter Green Kick)21–64
- Q4 13:46WSUDylan Paine 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–64
- Q3 5:10WSUTsion Nunnally 72 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–57
- Q3 5:45NORTHank Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Hunter Green Kick)14–50
- Q3 9:43WSUJosh Meredith 15 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–50
- Q2 0:12NORTJamarii Robinson 18 Yd pass from Jacob Sirmon (Hunter Green Kick)7–43
- Q2 3:20WSULincoln Victor 31 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–43
- Q2 8:45WSUNakia Watson 6 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–36
- Q2 12:27WSUJosh Kelly 18 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–29
- Q1 3:41WSULincoln Victor 28 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:08WSUKyle Williams 37 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–15
- Q1 10:28WSUCameron Ward 8 Yd Run (Cameron Ward Pass to Billy Riviere III for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
Market line
WSU −48
Against the number
NORT covered
line WSU −48
What the numbers say
- NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 37% success rate
Kickoff152 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WSU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 100%
Closing line
WSU −48
Closing total
55.0
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 21 – 64 WSU
Northern Colorado
- PassJacob Sirmon 16/24, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDavid Afari 17 CAR, 116 YDS
- RecBlake Haggerty 6 REC, 70 YDS
Washington State
- PassCam Ward 20/26, 327 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDylan Paine 7 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLincoln Victor 6 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
24.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
138
Points / snap
0.62
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 210 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Colorado vs. Washington State?
Northern Colorado 21, Washington State 64.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
NORT
WSU
37%
Success rate
61%
0.32
EPA / pass
0.90
0.07
EPA / rush
0.50
35%
Early-down success
58%
35%
Pass success
69%
38%
Rush success
53%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
29%
24%
Stuffed rush rate
19%
54%
Pass rate
52%
7.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.5
NORT
7.7 yards to go on 3rd down
63 scrimmage snaps
WSU
7.5 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Total yards | 718 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 489 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 229 |
| 16 | First downs | 33 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 8-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 29/38 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 12.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-80 | Penalties | 5-56 |
| 29:11 | Possession | 30:49 |
NORT
6/7 with the model
−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
WSU
1/1 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q3 2:53 NORT punt on 4th & 2 at NORT 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 9/12 scoring drives
WSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD4 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q1
NORTPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1
WSUTD6 pl, 42 yds· own 43Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
WSUTD7 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
NORTPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q2
WSUTD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2
NORTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
WSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
WSUTD7 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q3
NORTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WSUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NORTPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
WSUTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
NORTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
WSUINT9 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q4
NORTPUNT9 pl, 60 yds· own 3Q4
WSUPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 26Q4
NORTEND2 pl, 19 yds· own 10Q4
- Q4 11:36NORTDarius Stewart 52 Yd pass from Jacob Sirmon (Hunter Green Kick)21–64
- Q4 13:46WSUDylan Paine 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–64
- Q3 5:10WSUTsion Nunnally 72 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–57
- Q3 5:45NORTHank Gibbs 1 Yd Run (Hunter Green Kick)14–50
- Q3 9:43WSUJosh Meredith 15 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–50
- Q2 0:12NORTJamarii Robinson 18 Yd pass from Jacob Sirmon (Hunter Green Kick)7–43
- Q2 3:20WSULincoln Victor 31 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–43
- Q2 8:45WSUNakia Watson 6 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–36
- Q2 12:27WSUJosh Kelly 18 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–29
- Q1 3:41WSULincoln Victor 28 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–22
- Q1 6:08WSUKyle Williams 37 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)0–15
- Q1 10:28WSUCameron Ward 8 Yd Run (Cameron Ward Pass to Billy Riviere III for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →