#5Lincoln Victor

WR·Washington State·2023

Lincoln Victor is a Versatile WR for Washington State. Lincoln's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 107 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lincoln Victor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

89 Receptions860 Rec yards5 Rec TD9.7 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns80 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume45
Explosiveness18
Consistency70
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.68 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.85 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Northern Colorado.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Kawaan Baker	South Alabama	2018	63	0.410	1.4	25.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Colorado State	W50-24	-8.9	11	168	15.3	0	50	1.20
2	vsWisconsin	W31-22	9.4	7	55	7.9	1	22	0.92
3	vsNorthern Colorado	W64-21	—	6	119	19.8	2	31	1.85
4	vsOregon State	W38-35	12.6	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	vsArizona	L6-44	14.1	4	19	4.8	0	8	-0.09
8	@Oregon	L24-38	26.2	16	161	10.1	0	37	0.37
9	@Arizona State	L27-38	-11.3	9	51	5.7	1	19	0.29
10	vsStanford	L7-10	-11.9	12	66	5.5	0	10	0.46
11	@California	L39-42	-0.1	8	84	10.5	0	20	0.01
12	vsColorado	W56-14	-4.9	5	49	9.8	0	19	0.57
13	@Washington	L21-24	16.4	11	88	8.0	1	28	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.7%

Passing plays

24.1%

Rushing plays

1.2%

Standard downs

15.6%

Passing downs

15.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.91
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.83

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).