Akron vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsKENT
- Q4 5:08KENTChrishon McCray 37 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)38–17
- Q3 4:17AKRJarvis Rush 36 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Charles Kellom Pass to Tahj Bullock for Two-Point Conversion)38–10
- Q3 10:52AKRTahj Bullock 8 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)30–10
- Q2 0:00AKRGarrison Smith 27 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 6:01AKRGarrison Smith 26 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 8:35KENTWill Hryszko 40 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 13:05AKRCharles Kellom 13 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:15AKRTahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)10–7
- Q1 10:34AKRGarrison Smith 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:31KENTLuke Floriea 80 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.5 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassBen Finley 14/29, 250 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJordon Simmons 11 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecAdrian Norton 5 REC, 107 YDS
- PassTommy Ulatowski 12/20, 229 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKy Thomas 13 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecLuke Floriea 3 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:15AKR +18%
Tahj Bullock run for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q1 13:31KENT +17%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 80 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
- Q2 13:05AKR +14%
Charles Kellom run for 13 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q2 6:01AKR +8%
Garrison Smith 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 10:34AKR +7%
Garrison Smith 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00AKR +7%
Garrison Smith 27 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Kent State?
Akron 38, Kent State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AKR) was correct.
| AKR | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 527 | Total yards | 281 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 277 | Rushing yards | 52 |
| 28 | First downs | 9 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/31 | Comp/Att | 12/20 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-52 | Penalties | 13-87 |
| 36:32 | Possession | 23:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:14 KENT punt on 4th & 1 at KENT 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:08KENTChrishon McCray 37 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)38–17
- Q3 4:17AKRJarvis Rush 36 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Charles Kellom Pass to Tahj Bullock for Two-Point Conversion)38–10
- Q3 10:52AKRTahj Bullock 8 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)30–10
- Q2 0:00AKRGarrison Smith 27 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 6:01AKRGarrison Smith 26 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 8:35KENTWill Hryszko 40 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 13:05AKRCharles Kellom 13 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:15AKRTahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)10–7
- Q1 10:34AKRGarrison Smith 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:31KENTLuke Floriea 80 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 835, AKR Elo 1055 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +6.4 (35% to win) — 4.1 points clear of KENT's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAkron leads 26–19–1 · 43% have been one-possession games
| AKR | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#118) | CORE overall | -36.6 (#134) |
| -10 / +7 | offense / defense | -16 / +21 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 0.90 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 3.75 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →