Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 5:47MTSUOmari Kelly 7 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)49–21
- Q4 9:01WKUTrevor Borland 3 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)49–14
- Q3 3:28WKUKisean Johnson 36 Yd pass from Dalvin Smith (Lucas Carneiro Kick)42–14
- Q3 6:17MTSUOmari Kelly 71 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)35–14
- Q3 6:38WKUCaden Veltkamp 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)35–7
- Q3 10:12MTSUOmari Kelly 37 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)28–7
- Q3 14:07WKUK.D. Hutchinson 72 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–0
- Q2 0:18WKUEaston Messer 10 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:05WKUKisean Johnson 6 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:37WKURiver Helms 4 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MTSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WKU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassCaden Veltkamp 27/30, 398 YDS, 5 TD
- RushLT Sanders 8 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecKisean Johnson 8 REC, 129 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNicholas Vattiato 24/31, 456 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushNicholas Vattiato 9 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecOmari Kelly 9 REC, 239 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:37WKU +19%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 1:05WKU +15%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q2 0:18WKU +8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 10 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky 49, Middle Tennessee 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 631 | Total yards | 514 |
| 481 | Passing yards | 456 |
| 150 | Rushing yards | 58 |
| 30 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 31/37 | Comp/Att | 24/31 |
| 13.0 | Yards per pass | 14.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 7-57 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:57 MTSU go for it on 4th & 12 at WKU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:47MTSUOmari Kelly 7 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)49–21
- Q4 9:01WKUTrevor Borland 3 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)49–14
- Q3 3:28WKUKisean Johnson 36 Yd pass from Dalvin Smith (Lucas Carneiro Kick)42–14
- Q3 6:17MTSUOmari Kelly 71 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)35–14
- Q3 6:38WKUCaden Veltkamp 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)35–7
- Q3 10:12MTSUOmari Kelly 37 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)28–7
- Q3 14:07WKUK.D. Hutchinson 72 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–0
- Q2 0:18WKUEaston Messer 10 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:05WKUKisean Johnson 6 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:37WKURiver Helms 4 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1288, WKU Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -1 (54% to win) — 9.5 points clear of MTSU's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Kentucky leads 12–6 · Western Kentucky has won 7 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| WKU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#100) | CORE overall | -27.4 (#130) |
| -1 / +10 | offense / defense | -10 / +17 |
| 2.23 | points / drive | 1.46 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 3.36 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →