Skip to content
Omari Kelly
Omari Kelly

#1Omari Kelly

WR·Middle Tennessee·2024

Omari Kelly is a Versatile WR for Middle Tennessee. Omari's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 53 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Omari Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
53 Receptions869 Rec yards4 Rec TD16.4 Yards/rec
Returns
8 Punt returns83 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume25
  • Explosiveness63
  • Consistency72
  • Pass-Down66
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.35 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Western Kentucky (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.350−2.35Wk 1 vs Tennessee Tech: +1.35 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Ole Miss: -0.80 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Western Kentucky: +2.35 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Duke: +0.13 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Memphis: +1.26 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Louisiana Tech: +0.56 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Kennesaw State: +0.99 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Jacksonville State: +1.04 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs UTEP: +0.33 EPA/play10Wk 13 vs New Mexico State: +1.61 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsTennessee TechW32-25—44711.80261.35
2@Ole MissL3-5227.91-1-1.000-0.80
3vsWestern KentuckyL21-49-2.2923926.63712.35
4vsDukeL17-455.64123.0030.13
5@MemphisL7-249.6617429.00691.26
7@Louisiana TechL21-48-11.6810312.90310.56
8vsKennesaw StateW14-5-25.167712.80220.99
9@Jacksonville StateL20-42-1.0812816.00381.04
10@UTEPW20-13-22.723216.00250.33
13vsNew Mexico StateL21-36-19.055811.61191.61

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.9%
Passing plays
13.5%
Rushing plays
2.0%
Standard downs
8.1%
Passing downs
10.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.08
Passing downs
1.18
Pass / Rush EPA
1.35 / -1.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.