Elon vs. Villanova: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Elon0-1
Villanova0-1
▸Final
Villanova StadiumConference game
ELONTeam statsVILL
99Total yards476
46Pass36
53Rush440
5First downs26
1-93rd down6-14
0Turnovers2
19:11Possession40:49
- Q3 7:02VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:33VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 50 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:24VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
VILL −7.5
Against the number
VILL covered
line VILL −7.5
What the numbers say
- ELON played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.6
Kickoff126 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
VILL (top)ELON (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VILL 100%
Closing line
VILL −7.5
Closing total
45.0
Model line
—
Actual result
ELON 0 – 21 VILL
Elon
- PassJustin Allen 4/11, 40 YDS
- RushJalen Hampton 10 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecLandyn Backey 1 REC, 33 YDS
Villanova
- PassConnor Watkins 3/10, 36 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Ragland 15 CAR, 126 YDS
- RecAJ Johnson 2 REC, 32 YDS
32.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
110
Points / snap
0.19
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVILL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
VILL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Elon vs. Villanova?
Elon 0, Villanova 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VILL) was correct.
ELON
VILL
13%
Success rate
48%
-0.37
EPA / pass
-1.01
-0.29
EPA / rush
0.38
14%
Early-down success
49%
6%
Pass success
18%
17%
Rush success
53%
5%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
30%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
41%
Pass rate
16%
7.2
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.6
ELON
7.2 yards to go on 3rd down
39 scrimmage snaps
VILL
4.6 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
| ELON | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Total yards | 476 |
| 46 | Passing yards | 36 |
| 53 | Rushing yards | 440 |
| 5 | First downs | 26 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 5/13 | Comp/Att | 3/10 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 5-25 |
| 19:11 | Possession | 40:49 |
ELON
7/8 with the model
nothing given up
VILL
1/4 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 1:02 VILL go for it on 4th & 6 at ELON 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishELON 0/9 scoring drives← own end zone →VILL 3/9 scoring drives
VILLTD10 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
ELONDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· opp 49Q1
VILLTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
ELONPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
VILLDOWNS9 pl, 47 yds· own 24Q1
ELONPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q2
VILLINT8 pl, 60 yds· own 6Q2
ELONDOWNS5 pl, 41 yds· own 28Q2
VILLDOWNS10 pl, 43 yds· own 31Q2
ELONEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 26Q2
ELONPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 29Q3
VILLTD8 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3
ELONPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q3
VILLFUM6 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q3
ELONPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 22Q4
VILLPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 36Q4
ELONPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 23Q4
VILLEND12 pl, 89 yds· own 5Q4
- Q3 7:02VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:33VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 50 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:24VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 1 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →