Sacramento State vs. Nicholls: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Sacramento State

▸0038

Nicholls

0024

Final

Manning Field at John L. Guidry Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	7	10	7	14	38
NICH	0	3	7	14	24

SACTeam statsNICH

441Total yards293

256Pass196

185Rush97

22First downs18

7-153rd down4-14

1Turnovers1

33:11Possession26:49

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:40NICHTerry Matthews 84 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)38–24
• Q4 7:26NICHJaylon Spears 3 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)38–17
• Q4 10:13SACAnderson Grover 6 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)38–10
• Q4 12:43SACKaiden Bennett 7 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)31–10
• Q3 1:05SACJared Gipson 40 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)24–10
• Q3 7:16NICHPat McQuaide 4 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)17–10
• Q2 0:21NICHGavin Lasseigne 30 Yd Field Goal 17–3
• Q2 6:34SACZach Schreiner 23 Yd Field Goal 17–0
• Q2 13:16SACMarcus Fulcher 1 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)14–0
• Q1 10:01SACMarcus Fulcher 5 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SAC −23.5

Against the number

NICH covered

line SAC −23.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NICH 100%50%SAC 100%

Kickoff103 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NICH (top)SAC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NICH 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SAC −23.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SAC 38 – 24 NICH

Leaders

Sacramento State

• PassKaiden Bennett 11/16, 221 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMarcus Fulcher 19 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDevin Gandy 3 REC, 82 YDS

Nicholls

• PassPat McQuaide 15/29, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushCollin Guggenheim 16 CAR, 74 YDS
• RecTerry Matthews 1 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

38.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

86

Points / snap

0.72

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SAC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

SAC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

15 calls

NICH gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.SAC 4/6 · NICH 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Sacramento State vs. Nicholls?

Sacramento State 38, Nicholls 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SAC

NICH

40%

Success rate

42%

0.63

EPA / pass

0.15

0.02

EPA / rush

0.47

36%

Early-down success

44%

55%

Pass success

37%

30%

Rush success

47%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

40%

Pass rate

53%

7.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.7

SAC

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

NICH

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

36 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SAC		NICH
441	Total yards	293
256	Passing yards	196
185	Rushing yards	97
22	First downs	18
7-15	3rd down	4-14
1-1	4th down	0-1
16/27	Comp/Att	15/29
9.5	Yards per pass	6.8
3.8	Yards per rush	2.7
1	Turnovers	1
8-80	Penalties	4-40
33:11	Possession	26:49

Fourth downs

15 calls

SAC

4/6 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

NICH

7/8 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 8:33 NICH punt on 4th & 1 at NICH 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SAC 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →NICH 4/13 scoring drives

SACTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NICHPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 28Q1

SACPUNT8 pl, 48 yds· own 10Q1

NICHINT7 pl, 35 yds· own 6Q1

SACPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 49Q1

NICHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 1Q1

SACTD5 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q1

NICHPUNT6 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q2

SACFG7 pl, 24 yds· opp 29Q2

NICHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 28Q2

SACPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 38Q2

NICHFG14 pl, 74 yds· own 14Q2

SACEND1 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

NICHPUNT7 pl, 30 yds· own 17Q3

SACINT7 pl, 31 yds· own 12Q3

NICHTD3 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q3

SACMISS9 pl, 27 yds· own 45Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 28Q3

SACTD5 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 16Q3

SACTD1 pl, 6 yds· opp 6Q4

SACTD5 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

NICHDOWNS7 pl, -19 yds· own 25Q4

NICHTD8 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

SACPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q4

NICHTD3 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q4

SACUncateg3 pl, -1 yds· opp 46Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:40NICHTerry Matthews 84 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)38–24
• Q4 7:26NICHJaylon Spears 3 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)38–17
• Q4 10:13SACAnderson Grover 6 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)38–10
• Q4 12:43SACKaiden Bennett 7 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)31–10
• Q3 1:05SACJared Gipson 40 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Zach Schreiner Kick)24–10
• Q3 7:16NICHPat McQuaide 4 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)17–10
• Q2 0:21NICHGavin Lasseigne 30 Yd Field Goal 17–3
• Q2 6:34SACZach Schreiner 23 Yd Field Goal 17–0
• Q2 13:16SACMarcus Fulcher 1 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)14–0
• Q1 10:01SACMarcus Fulcher 5 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →