Central Michigan vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsUSA
- Q4 0:13CMUJase Bauer 4 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)34–30
- Q4 2:42USALa'Damian Webb 1 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)27–30
- Q4 13:27USACaullin Lacy 72 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)27–23
- Q4 14:47CMUJesse Prewitt III 70 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:53USADiego Guajardo 32 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 8:31CMUJase Bauer 1 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)20–14
- Q2 4:13CMUJase Bauer 1 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson PAT failed)13–14
- Q2 13:37CMUJase Bauer 15 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:23USACaullin Lacy 35 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:02USALa'Damian Webb 3 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJase Bauer 19/30, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJase Bauer 15 CAR, 55 YDS, 4 TD
- RecJesse Prewitt III 10 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarter Bradley 17/27, 254 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLa'Damian Webb 18 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaullin Lacy 6 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:13CMU +76%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
- Q4 2:42USA +73%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q4 14:47CMU +44%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 70 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
- Q4 13:27USA +33%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 72 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)
- Q3 8:31CMU +29%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined (Tristan Mattson KICK)
- Q4 9:30CMU +18%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris Parker
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. South Alabama?
Central Michigan 34, South Alabama 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CMU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 355 | Total yards | 405 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-49 |
| 33:44 | Possession | 26:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:00 CMU punt on 4th & 1 at CMU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:13CMUJase Bauer 4 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)34–30
- Q4 2:42USALa'Damian Webb 1 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)27–30
- Q4 13:27USACaullin Lacy 72 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)27–23
- Q4 14:47CMUJesse Prewitt III 70 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:53USADiego Guajardo 32 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 8:31CMUJase Bauer 1 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)20–14
- Q2 4:13CMUJase Bauer 1 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson PAT failed)13–14
- Q2 13:37CMUJase Bauer 15 Yd Run (Tristan Mattson Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:23USACaullin Lacy 35 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:02USALa'Damian Webb 3 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1541, CMU Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -11.2 (78% to win) — 4.8 points clear of CMU's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #11 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| CMU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.9 (#123) | CORE overall | +11.0 (#30) |
| -6 / +13 | offense / defense | +6 / -5 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →