Utah vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsUSC
- Q4 1:52UTAHMicah Bernard 23 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)47–24
- Q4 5:29UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 53 Yd Run (Jadon Redding PAT failed)40–24
- Q4 10:08UTAHThomas Yassmin 60 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)34–24
- Q4 10:52USCMario Williams 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)27–24
- Q4 14:56UTAHJadon Redding 35 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 10:33UTAHMoney Parks 57 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:02UTAHJaylen Dixon 4 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)17–17
- Q2 3:55UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 8 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:08USCDenis Lynch 20 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 2:52USCRaleek Brown 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:10UTAHJadon Redding 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:28USCTahj Washington 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.6 vs 3rd & 7.3
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassCameron Rising 22/34, 310 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJa'Quinden Jackson 13 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMoney Parks 4 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCaleb Williams 28/41, 363 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushAustin Jones 15 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecTahj Washington 6 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:33UTAH +28%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 57 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
- Q4 10:52USC +27%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
- Q2 0:02UTAH +24%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
- Q4 10:08UTAH +19%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 60 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
- Q2 3:55UTAH +19%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
- Q1 2:52USC +19%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. USC?
Utah 47, USC 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| UTAH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 533 | Total yards | 419 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 363 |
| 223 | Rushing yards | 56 |
| 25 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 29:47 | Possession | 30:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:08 USC field goal on 4th & 3 at UTAH 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52UTAHMicah Bernard 23 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)47–24
- Q4 5:29UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 53 Yd Run (Jadon Redding PAT failed)40–24
- Q4 10:08UTAHThomas Yassmin 60 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)34–24
- Q4 10:52USCMario Williams 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)27–24
- Q4 14:56UTAHJadon Redding 35 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 10:33UTAHMoney Parks 57 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:02UTAHJaylen Dixon 4 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Jadon Redding Kick)17–17
- Q2 3:55UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 8 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:08USCDenis Lynch 20 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 2:52USCRaleek Brown 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:10UTAHJadon Redding 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:28USCTahj Washington 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1785, UTAH Elo 1896 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects USC +4.4 (39% to win) — 6.9 points clear of UTAH's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #96 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #49 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →USC leads 13–10 · Utah has won 4 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.5 (#12) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#24) |
| +7 / -9 | offense / defense | +20 / +8 |
| 3.26 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 2.04 | allowed / drive | 2.65 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 12% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →