Boise State vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsUTEP
- Q4 4:25UTEPReynaldo Flores 3 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)10–27
- Q3 1:01UTEPMarcus Bellon 47 Yd Punt Return (Gavin Baechle Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:01UTEPGavin Baechle 25 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 13:01BOISStefan Cobbs 15 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)10–10
- Q2 2:10UTEPJeremiah Ballard 42 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Gavin Baechle Kick)3–10
- Q2 13:35UTEPGavin Baechle 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:57BOISJonah Dalmas 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassHank Bachmeier 13/34, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGeorge Holani 16 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecLatrell Caples 4 REC, 32 YDS
- PassGavin Hardison 10/11, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeion Hankins 21 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecJeremiah Ballard 4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:01BOIS +36%
Stefan Cobbs 15 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
- Q3 0:00UTEP +30%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 29
- Q2 2:10UTEP +25%
Jeremiah Ballard 42 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Gavin Baechle Kick)
- Q3 0:00UTEP +13%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST down
- Q3 3:01BOIS +13%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Roger Carreon) to the BoiSt 4
- Q3 3:01UTEP +11%
Gavin Baechle 25 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. UTEP?
Boise State 10, UTEP 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 177 | Total yards | 322 |
| 93 | Passing yards | 123 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 14 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/34 | Comp/Att | 10/11 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-21 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 19:25 | Possession | 40:35 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:35 BOIS punt on 4th & 15 at UTEP 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25UTEPReynaldo Flores 3 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)10–27
- Q3 1:01UTEPMarcus Bellon 47 Yd Punt Return (Gavin Baechle Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:01UTEPGavin Baechle 25 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 13:01BOISStefan Cobbs 15 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)10–10
- Q2 2:10UTEPJeremiah Ballard 42 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Gavin Baechle Kick)3–10
- Q2 13:35UTEPGavin Baechle 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:57BOISJonah Dalmas 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1245, BOIS Elo 1618 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +12.5 (21% to win) — 4.0 points clear of UTEP's market line of +16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #18 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| BOIS | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.8 (#22) | CORE overall | -18.5 (#120) |
| +7 / -6 | offense / defense | -7 / +12 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →