Tulsa vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsNAVY
- Q4 3:52NAVYVincent Terrell Jr. 3 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)21–53
- Q4 13:17TLSASteven Anderson 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)21–46
- Q3 1:33NAVYDaniel Davies 34 Yd Field Goal 14–46
- Q3 10:06NAVYTai Lavatai 26 Yd pass from Kai Puailoa-Rojas (Daniel Davies Kick)14–43
- Q2 0:11NAVYDaniel Davies 46 Yd Field Goal 14–36
- Q2 3:21TLSAKeylon Stokes 76 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)14–33
- Q2 3:57NAVYDaba Fofana 11 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–33
- Q2 10:07NAVYTeam Safety 7–26
- Q2 10:57NAVYDaba Fofana 15 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:41NAVYDaba Fofana 47 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:43TLSAMalachai Jones 22 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:25NAVYNathan Kent 70 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:10NAVYDaniel Davies 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDavis Brin 20/31, 284 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushBill Jackson 3 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecKeylon Stokes 7 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKai Puailoa-Rojas 1/1, 26 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDaba Fofana 21 CAR, 159 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTai Lavatai 1 REC, 26 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:41NAVY +20%
Daba Fofana run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
- Q1 0:43TLSA +19%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 22 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
- Q1 2:25NAVY +19%
Nathan Kent run for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
- Q2 10:57NAVY +15%
Daba Fofana run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
- Q1 5:10NAVY +9%
Daniel Davies 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:57NAVY +6%
D. Fofana run for 11 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Navy?
Tulsa 21, Navy 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 490 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 35 |
| 25 | Rushing yards | 455 |
| 14 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 2/8 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 19:34 | Possession | 40:26 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:45 TLSA punt on 4th & 3 at TLSA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:52NAVYVincent Terrell Jr. 3 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)21–53
- Q4 13:17TLSASteven Anderson 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)21–46
- Q3 1:33NAVYDaniel Davies 34 Yd Field Goal 14–46
- Q3 10:06NAVYTai Lavatai 26 Yd pass from Kai Puailoa-Rojas (Daniel Davies Kick)14–43
- Q2 0:11NAVYDaniel Davies 46 Yd Field Goal 14–36
- Q2 3:21TLSAKeylon Stokes 76 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)14–33
- Q2 3:57NAVYDaba Fofana 11 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–33
- Q2 10:07NAVYTeam Safety 7–26
- Q2 10:57NAVYDaba Fofana 15 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:41NAVYDaba Fofana 47 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)7–17
- Q1 0:43TLSAMalachai Jones 22 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:25NAVYNathan Kent 70 Yd Run (Daniel Davies Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:10NAVYDaniel Davies 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1364, TLSA Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +3.3 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #83 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Navy leads 9–2 · Navy has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#85) | CORE overall | -11.2 (#104) |
| -1 / +4 | offense / defense | -7 / +5 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -37 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →