Clemson vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLEMTeam statsND
- Q4 1:35CLEMJoseph Ngata 4 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (B.T. Potter Kick)14–35
- Q4 4:16NDMichael Mayer 17 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Blake Grupe Kick)7–35
- Q4 10:14CLEMWill Shipley 1 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)7–28
- Q4 12:58NDBenjamin Morrison 96 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)0–28
- Q4 14:37NDAudric Estime 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:38NDDrew Pyne 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:08NDPrince Kollie 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ND did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassDJ Uiagalelei 27/39, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWill Shipley 12 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavis Allen 7 REC, 60 YDS
- PassDrew Pyne 9/17, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLogan Diggs 17 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecMichael Mayer 4 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:08ND +17%
Prince Kollie 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Grupe Kick)
- Q2 0:38ND +14%
Drew Pyne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q2 0:38ND +5%
CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. Notre Dame?
Clemson 14, Notre Dame 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| CLEM | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 348 |
| 191 | Passing yards | 85 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 263 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/40 | Comp/Att | 9/17 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 5-67 |
| 27:00 | Possession | 33:00 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:23 ND punt on 4th & 4 at CLEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:35CLEMJoseph Ngata 4 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (B.T. Potter Kick)14–35
- Q4 4:16NDMichael Mayer 17 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Blake Grupe Kick)7–35
- Q4 10:14CLEMWill Shipley 1 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)7–28
- Q4 12:58NDBenjamin Morrison 96 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)0–28
- Q4 14:37NDAudric Estime 2 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:38NDDrew Pyne 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:08NDPrince Kollie 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1795, CLEM Elo 1826 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -1.2 (54% to win) — 4.7 points clear of ND's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #92 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #2 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Clemson leads 5–3 · 63% have been one-possession games
| CLEM | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#18) | CORE overall | +6.8 (#39) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.59 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →