Marshall vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsND
- Q4 0:14NDMichael Mayer 5 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–21
- Q4 4:35MRSHSteven Gilmore 37 Yd Interception Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)26–15
- Q4 5:16MRSHDevin Miller 3 Yd pass from Henry Colombi (Rece Verhoff Kick)19–15
- Q4 14:57NDTyler Buchner 1 Yd Run (Tyler Buchner Run for Two-Point Conversion)12–15
- Q3 3:54MRSHRece Verhoff 20 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 0:15MRSHRece Verhoff 21 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 3:00NDTyler Buchner 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:18MRSHKhalan Laborn 4 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassHenry Colombi 16/21, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKhalan Laborn 31 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayden Harrison 3 REC, 38 YDS
- PassTyler Buchner 18/32, 201 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTyler Buchner 13 CAR, 44 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMichael Mayer 8 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:16MRSH +53%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q4 14:57ND +35%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (T. Buchner Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 4:35MRSH +35%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Steven Gilmore return for 37 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
- Q2 3:00ND +21%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q4 5:12ND +20%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael Mayer
- Q2 14:18MRSH +16%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Notre Dame?
Marshall 26, Notre Dame 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Total yards | 351 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 219 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 16/21 | Comp/Att | 21/38 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-44 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 30:47 | Possession | 29:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:34 MRSH punt on 4th & 3 at ND 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:14NDMichael Mayer 5 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–21
- Q4 4:35MRSHSteven Gilmore 37 Yd Interception Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)26–15
- Q4 5:16MRSHDevin Miller 3 Yd pass from Henry Colombi (Rece Verhoff Kick)19–15
- Q4 14:57NDTyler Buchner 1 Yd Run (Tyler Buchner Run for Two-Point Conversion)12–15
- Q3 3:54MRSHRece Verhoff 20 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 0:15MRSHRece Verhoff 21 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 3:00NDTyler Buchner 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:18MRSHKhalan Laborn 4 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1814, MRSH Elo 1548 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -13 (81% to win) — 7.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #9 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #9 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →| MRSH | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#48) | CORE overall | +6.8 (#39) |
| -10 / -15 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 1.45 | points / drive | 2.59 |
| 1.18 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →