Oklahoma vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsTCU
- Q4 11:24OUJovantae Barnes 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)24–55
- Q3 1:40TCUMax Duggan 2 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)17–55
- Q3 9:30TCUKendre Miller 69 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)17–48
- Q2 1:34TCUGunnar Henderson 62 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)17–41
- Q2 8:49OUJovantae Barnes 20 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)17–34
- Q2 10:30TCUEmari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)10–34
- Q1 0:07TCUKendre Miller 15 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)10–27
- Q1 2:15OUEric Gray 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)10–20
- Q1 7:17TCUMax Duggan 67 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)3–20
- Q1 8:35TCUTaye Barber 73 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell PAT failed)3–13
- Q1 9:49OUZach Schmit 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:45TCUSavion Williams 19 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDillon Gabriel 7/16, 126 YDS
- RushJovantae Barnes 18 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrayden Willis 2 REC, 81 YDS
- PassMax Duggan 23/33, 302 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKendre Miller 13 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTaye Barber 3 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:17TCU +19%
Max Duggan run for 67 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
- Q1 0:07TCU +18%
Kendre Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
- Q1 2:15OU +18%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
- Q1 12:45TCU +16%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
- Q1 8:35TCU +16%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 73 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)
- Q2 8:49OU +13%
Jovantae Barnes run for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. TCU?
Oklahoma 24, TCU 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 355 | Total yards | 668 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 361 |
| 22 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 14/32 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 8.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-80 | Penalties | 4-55 |
| 27:11 | Possession | 32:49 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:21 TCU punt on 4th & 2 at TCU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:24OUJovantae Barnes 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)24–55
- Q3 1:40TCUMax Duggan 2 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)17–55
- Q3 9:30TCUKendre Miller 69 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)17–48
- Q2 1:34TCUGunnar Henderson 62 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)17–41
- Q2 8:49OUJovantae Barnes 20 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)17–34
- Q2 10:30TCUEmari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)10–34
- Q1 0:07TCUKendre Miller 15 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)10–27
- Q1 2:15OUEric Gray 1 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)10–20
- Q1 7:17TCUMax Duggan 67 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)3–20
- Q1 8:35TCUTaye Barber 73 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell PAT failed)3–13
- Q1 9:49OUZach Schmit 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:45TCUSavion Williams 19 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1526, OU Elo 1851 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU +10.6 (25% to win) — 5.6 points clear of OU's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #82 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #31 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 18–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| OU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#29) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#11) |
| +11 / +0 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 2.49 | points / drive | 2.95 |
| 2.31 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →