Louisville vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsGT
- Q4 0:28GTDontae Smith 12 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)27–46
- Q4 2:52GTMalachi Carter 34 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)27–39
- Q4 8:40GTJahmyr Gibbs 19 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–32
- Q3 0:32LOUMalik Cunningham 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–26
- Q3 6:34GTJeff Sims 22 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–26
- Q3 7:52GTJamious Griffin 3 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart PAT blocked)21–20
- Q2 0:43GTJalen Camp 9 Yd pass from Ahmarean Brown (Gavin Stewart Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:32LOUTutu Atwell 26 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:30LOUMalik Cunningham 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:24LOUMarshon Ford 3 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:00GTJahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMalik Cunningham 19/33, 229 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJavian Hawkins 26 CAR, 155 YDS
- RecMarshon Ford 5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJeff Sims 11/21, 249 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeff Sims 7 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalachi Carter 3 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:40GT +49%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 0:32LOU +28%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 6:34GT +24%
Jeff Sims run for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 7:52GT +21%
Jamious Griffin run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart PAT BLOCKED)
- Q4 5:41GT +20%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the GTech 47
- Q2 7:30LOU +19%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
Louisville 27, Georgia Tech 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LOU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 471 | Total yards | 450 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 192 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-78 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 36:38 | Possession | 23:22 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:21 GT punt on 4th & 1 at GT 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:28GTDontae Smith 12 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)27–46
- Q4 2:52GTMalachi Carter 34 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)27–39
- Q4 8:40GTJahmyr Gibbs 19 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–32
- Q3 0:32LOUMalik Cunningham 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–26
- Q3 6:34GTJeff Sims 22 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–26
- Q3 7:52GTJamious Griffin 3 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart PAT blocked)21–20
- Q2 0:43GTJalen Camp 9 Yd pass from Ahmarean Brown (Gavin Stewart Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:32LOUTutu Atwell 26 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:30LOUMalik Cunningham 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:24LOUMarshon Ford 3 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:00GTJahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1297, LOU Elo 1451 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT +3.8 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #74 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| LOU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.2 (#39) | CORE overall | -3.6 (#78) |
| +7 / +1 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 1.82 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.69 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →