Oregon State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 2:15ORSTTyjon Lindsey 24 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)56–38
- Q4 4:11ARIZJ.J. Taylor 2 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)49–38
- Q4 7:58ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 25 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)49–31
- Q3 3:20ARIZGary Brightwell 10 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)42–31
- Q3 8:42ARIZCedric Peterson 35 Yd pass from Grant Gunnell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–25
- Q3 10:33ORSTJermar Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)42–19
- Q2 0:04ORSTNoah Togiai 23 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)35–19
- Q2 2:31ORSTArtavis Pierce 4 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)28–19
- Q2 5:41ARIZJ.J. Taylor 3 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)21–19
- Q2 9:02ORSTJermar Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)21–12
- Q2 13:03ARIZGary Brightwell 38 Yd pass from Grant Gunnell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 14:04ORSTJermar Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)14–6
- Q1 2:33ARIZLucas Havrisik 27 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 6:18ARIZLucas Havrisik 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:28ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 21 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Luton 20/26, 328 YDS, 3 TD
- RushArtavis Pierce 15 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Hodgins 7 REC, 150 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGrant Gunnell 19/29, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJ.J. Taylor 21 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJ.J. Taylor 7 REC, 89 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:31ORST +25%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
- Q2 0:04ORST +24%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 23 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
- Q2 9:02ORST +23%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
- Q2 14:04ORST +21%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
- Q2 5:41ARIZ +21%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
- Q1 11:28ORST +18%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 21 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Arizona?
Oregon State 56, Arizona 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORST | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 572 | Total yards | 526 |
| 328 | Passing yards | 378 |
| 244 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 31 | First downs | 33 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 12-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/26 | Comp/Att | 26/41 |
| 12.6 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 12-120 | Penalties | 5-65 |
| 29:35 | Possession | 30:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:18 ARIZ field goal on 4th & 5 at ORST 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:15ORSTTyjon Lindsey 24 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)56–38
- Q4 4:11ARIZJ.J. Taylor 2 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)49–38
- Q4 7:58ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 25 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)49–31
- Q3 3:20ARIZGary Brightwell 10 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)42–31
- Q3 8:42ARIZCedric Peterson 35 Yd pass from Grant Gunnell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–25
- Q3 10:33ORSTJermar Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)42–19
- Q2 0:04ORSTNoah Togiai 23 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)35–19
- Q2 2:31ORSTArtavis Pierce 4 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)28–19
- Q2 5:41ARIZJ.J. Taylor 3 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)21–19
- Q2 9:02ORSTJermar Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)21–12
- Q2 13:03ARIZGary Brightwell 38 Yd pass from Grant Gunnell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 14:04ORSTJermar Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)14–6
- Q1 2:33ARIZLucas Havrisik 27 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 6:18ARIZLucas Havrisik 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:28ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 21 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1408, ORST Elo 1244 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -9 (73% to win) — 4.5 points clear of ARIZ's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #74 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Arizona leads 25–16–1 · 24% have been one-possession games
| ORST | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1 (#70) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#95) |
| +4 / +7 | offense / defense | -3 / +5 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →