South Carolina vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SCTeam statsUVA
- Q4 6:54UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 12 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–28
- Q3 7:14UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 10 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:42UVAJordan Ellis 9 Yd Run (Brian Delaney Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:30UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 6 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Bentley 17/39, 218 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRico Dowdle 6 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecShi Smith 6 REC, 76 YDS
- PassBryce Perkins 22/31, 208 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Ellis 26 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOlamide Zaccheaus 12 REC, 100 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:30UVA +21%
B. Perkins pass,to O. Zaccheaus for 6 yds for a TD, (B. Delaney KICK)
- Q2 0:42UVA +20%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
- Q3 7:14UVA +8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
- Q2 3:56UVA +6%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the SCaro 36
FAQ
What was the final score of South Carolina vs. Virginia?
South Carolina 0, Virginia 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 251 | Total yards | 413 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 33 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 12 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 11-17 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/39 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 17:25 | Possession | 42:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:01 SC punt on 4th & 1 at SC 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:54UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 12 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–28
- Q3 7:14UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 10 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:42UVAJordan Ellis 9 Yd Run (Brian Delaney Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:30UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 6 Yd pass from Bryce Perkins (Brian Delaney Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1560, SC Elo 1641 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UVA +3.2 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #83 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →South Carolina leads 21–13–1 · 29% have been one-possession games
| SC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.3 (#38) | CORE overall | +12.0 (#25) |
| +6 / -0 | offense / defense | +3 / -8 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 1.73 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →