Tennessee State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Tennessee State
▸
Georgia State
Final
Center Parc Stadium
TENNTeam statsGAST
383Total yards273
145Pass224
238Rush49
21First downs14
4-143rd down4-11
0Turnovers4
34:59Possession25:01
- Q4 11:29GASTTaz Bateman 36 Yd pass from Aaron Winchester (Brandon Wright Kick)17–10
- Q3 4:32TENNTreon Harris 12 Yd Run (Lane Clark Kick)17–3
- Q2 4:07GASTBrandon Wright 20 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 10:15TENNSeth Rowland 4 Yd Run (Lane Clark Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:05TENNLane Clark 18 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
GAST −15
Against the number
TENN covered
line GAST −15
What the numbers say
- TENN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
GAST (top)TENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 0%
Closing line
GAST −15
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
TENN 17 – 10 GAST
consensus, liveGAST −15
Tennessee State
- PassTreon Harris 12/25, 145 YDS
- RushTreon Harris 11 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPatrick Smith 6 REC, 70 YDS
Georgia State
- PassConner Manning 14/17, 159 YDS
- RushTaz Bateman 12 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecTaz Bateman 6 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.21
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
TENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee State vs. Georgia State?
Tennessee State 17, Georgia State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GAST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
TENN
GAST
39%
Success rate
32%
0.18
EPA / pass
0.37
0.17
EPA / rush
-0.79
40%
Early-down success
30%
41%
Pass success
46%
37%
Rush success
15%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
28%
Stuffed rush rate
42%
39%
Pass rate
56%
6.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.1
TENN
6.4 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
GAST
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
59 scrimmage snaps
| TENN | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 273 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 224 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 49 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/25 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 12-101 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 34:59 | Possession | 25:01 |
TENN
4/9 with the model
−3.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
GAST
4/6 with the model
−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 6:05 TENN field goal on 4th & 1 at GAST 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishTENN 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 2/12 scoring drives
TENNPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q1
GASTFUM3 pl, 19 yds· opp 46Q1
TENNFG13 pl, 72 yds· own 27Q1
GASTPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 35Q1
TENNMISS7 pl, 51 yds· own 28Q1
GASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q1
TENNTD9 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
GASTFG12 pl, 49 yds· own 48Q2
TENNMISS10 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q2
GASTEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q2
GASTDOWNS5 pl, 27 yds· own 26Q3
TENNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 47Q3
GASTDOWNS5 pl, 81 yds· own 15Q3
TENNTD10 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q3
GASTFUM4 pl, 21 yds· own 37Q3
TENNMISS5 pl, 21 yds· own 42Q3
GASTTD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4
TENNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 6Q4
GASTFUM1 pl, -2 yds· own 49Q4
TENNPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 38Q4
GASTPUNT7 pl, 30 yds· own 16Q4
TENNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 6Q4
GASTINT2 pl, 6 yds· own 44Q4
TENNEND2 pl, -4 yds· opp 27Q4
- Q4 11:29GASTTaz Bateman 36 Yd pass from Aaron Winchester (Brandon Wright Kick)17–10
- Q3 4:32TENNTreon Harris 12 Yd Run (Lane Clark Kick)17–3
- Q2 4:07GASTBrandon Wright 20 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 10:15TENNSeth Rowland 4 Yd Run (Lane Clark Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:05TENNLane Clark 18 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTennessee State were +15 — a 17% shot
#55 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #17 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →