Houston vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsFSU
- Q4 1:59HOURyan Jackson 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)38–24
- Q4 4:55FSUJesus Wilson 14 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)31–24
- Q4 6:08HOUChance Allen 17 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)31–17
- Q4 11:12FSUTravis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)24–17
- Q4 12:50HOUTy Cummings 39 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:18FSUDalvin Cook 1 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)21–10
- Q2 4:30HOUGreg Ward Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)21–3
- Q2 6:11HOUChance Allen 20 Yd pass from Demarcus Ayers (Ty Cummings Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:37FSURoberto Aguayo 20 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:17HOUGreg Ward Jr. 7 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassGreg Ward 25/41, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushGreg Ward 20 CAR, 67 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDemarcus Ayers 9 REC, 82 YDS
- PassSean Maguire 22/44, 392 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
- RushDalvin Cook 18 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTravis Rudolph 7 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:11HOU +19%
Demarcus Ayers pass complete to Chance Allen for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
- Q1 5:17HOU +19%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
- Q4 11:12FSU +17%
Travis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
- Q4 8:30HOU +13%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler McCloskey) to the FlaSt 45
- Q3 10:18FSU +13%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
- Q2 4:30HOU +12%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Florida State?
Houston 38, Florida State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 413 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 397 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 16 |
| 27 | First downs | 17 |
| 13-23 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/46 | Comp/Att | 23/48 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 0.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 6-66 |
| 34:27 | Possession | 25:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:32 HOU punt on 4th & 1 at HOU 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59HOURyan Jackson 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)38–24
- Q4 4:55FSUJesus Wilson 14 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)31–24
- Q4 6:08HOUChance Allen 17 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)31–17
- Q4 11:12FSUTravis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)24–17
- Q4 12:50HOUTy Cummings 39 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:18FSUDalvin Cook 1 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)21–10
- Q2 4:30HOUGreg Ward Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)21–3
- Q2 6:11HOUChance Allen 20 Yd pass from Demarcus Ayers (Ty Cummings Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:37FSURoberto Aguayo 20 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:17HOUGreg Ward Jr. 7 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1938, HOU Elo 1891 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects FSU -1.9 (56% to win) — 5.1 points clear of HOU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #65 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Houston leads 13–2–2 · Houston has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| HOU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#42) | CORE overall | +20.3 (#9) |
| +5 / -3 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.47 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →