San Diego State vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsCIN
- Q4 3:21CINMike Boone 1 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)42–7
- Q4 9:04SDSUAlex Barrett 43 Yd Interception Return (Donny Hageman Kick)42–0
- Q4 11:29SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 2 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)35–0
- Q3 5:14SDSUDakota Gordon 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)28–0
- Q2 2:02SDSUDakota Gordon 16 Yd pass from Donnel Pumphrey (Donny Hageman Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:08SDSUMikah Holder 14 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Donny Hageman Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:45SDSURashaad Penny 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Donny Hageman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassChristian Chapman 8/11, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 25 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDakota Gordon 4 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHayden Moore 19/30, 202 YDS, 3 INT
- RushHosey Williams 9 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecMax Morrison 7 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:08SDSU +9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
- Q2 2:02SDSU +6%
Donnel Pumphrey pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 16 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Cincinnati?
San Diego State 42, Cincinnati 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SDSU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 279 |
| 129 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 9/12 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 10-110 |
| 35:34 | Possession | 24:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:59 SDSU punt on 4th & 2 at SDSU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:21CINMike Boone 1 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)42–7
- Q4 9:04SDSUAlex Barrett 43 Yd Interception Return (Donny Hageman Kick)42–0
- Q4 11:29SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 2 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)35–0
- Q3 5:14SDSUDakota Gordon 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)28–0
- Q2 2:02SDSUDakota Gordon 16 Yd pass from Donnel Pumphrey (Donny Hageman Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:08SDSUMikah Holder 14 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Donny Hageman Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:45SDSURashaad Penny 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Donny Hageman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1535, SDSU Elo 1740 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CIN +8.2 (30% to win) — 7.7 points clear of SDSU's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #84 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| SDSU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.2 (#32) | CORE overall | +5.9 (#50) |
| +1 / -10 | offense / defense | +8 / +2 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 1.13 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -16 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →