Tulsa vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsUNM
- Q4 4:07TLSAZack Langer 5 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)40–21
- Q4 10:40TLSARedford Jones 24 Yd Field Goal 33–21
- Q3 3:02TLSAD'Angelo Brewer 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)30–21
- Q3 9:54UNMTeriyon Gipson 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)23–21
- Q3 12:00TLSARedford Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 3:56TLSARedford Jones 22 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 11:30TLSAKeevan Lucas 41 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)17–14
- Q1 2:42UNMDameon Gamblin 62 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)10–14
- Q1 7:56TLSARedford Jones 34 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 11:26TLSAJoshua Atkinson 69 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:12UNMTeriyon Gipson 13 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TLSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.8
- PassDane Evans 16/30, 321 YDS, 2 TD
- RushZack Langer 33 CAR, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Atkinson 3 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLamar Jordan 8/14, 141 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTeriyon Gipson 9 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDameon Gamblin 8 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:02TLSA +27%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q3 9:54UNM +24%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q2 11:30TLSA +23%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 41 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q1 2:42UNM +18%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 62 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q1 11:26TLSA +16%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 69 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q1 12:12UNM +16%
Teriyon Gipson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. New Mexico?
Tulsa 40, New Mexico 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 600 | Total yards | 390 |
| 321 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 279 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 31 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/30 | Comp/Att | 11/21 |
| 10.7 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 14-154 |
| 30:56 | Possession | 29:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 TLSA punt on 4th & 29 at UNM 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:07TLSAZack Langer 5 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)40–21
- Q4 10:40TLSARedford Jones 24 Yd Field Goal 33–21
- Q3 3:02TLSAD'Angelo Brewer 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)30–21
- Q3 9:54UNMTeriyon Gipson 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)23–21
- Q3 12:00TLSARedford Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q2 3:56TLSARedford Jones 22 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 11:30TLSAKeevan Lucas 41 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)17–14
- Q1 2:42UNMDameon Gamblin 62 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)10–14
- Q1 7:56TLSARedford Jones 34 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 11:26TLSAJoshua Atkinson 69 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:12UNMTeriyon Gipson 13 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1304, TLSA Elo 1286 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -3.1 (59% to win) — 2.4 points clear of TLSA's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #81 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Tulsa leads 5–3 · 38% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#90) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#108) |
| +3 / +11 | offense / defense | -7 / +10 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.65 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -22 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →