Texas vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsBAY
- Q4 3:59TEXNick Rose 37 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q4 9:40BAYLynx Hawthorne 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)20–17
- Q3 0:33BAYChris Callahan 24 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:27BAYJohnny Jefferson 20 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)20–7
- Q2 2:01TEXNick Rose 53 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 1:11TEXTyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)17–0
- Q1 5:45TEXNick Rose 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:27TEXCaleb Bluiett 57 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTyrone Swoopes 12/19, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChris Warren 28 CAR, 106 YDS
- RecCaleb Bluiett 1 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLynx Hawthorne 10/22, 64 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJohnny Jefferson 23 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCorey Coleman 7 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:40BAY +39%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q4 6:15TEX +31%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Andrew Beck for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down
- Q4 3:59TEX +31%
Nick Rose 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:54TEX +25%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete
- Q3 10:27BAY +23%
Johnny Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q1 1:11TEX +19%
Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Baylor?
Texas 23, Baylor 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 307 | Total yards | 479 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 84 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 395 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 3.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 10-60 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:41 TEX punt on 4th & 3 at BAY 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:59TEXNick Rose 37 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q4 9:40BAYLynx Hawthorne 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)20–17
- Q3 0:33BAYChris Callahan 24 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:27BAYJohnny Jefferson 20 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)20–7
- Q2 2:01TEXNick Rose 53 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q1 1:11TEXTyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)17–0
- Q1 5:45TEXNick Rose 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:27TEXCaleb Bluiett 57 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 2035, TEX Elo 1472 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -24.9 (94% to win) — 4.4 points clear of BAY's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #5 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #11 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Texas leads 79–28–5 · Texas has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| TEX | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 (#67) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#6) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | +18 / -5 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 3.48 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -15 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →