Washington vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsUSC
- Q4 12:02USCRonald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–12
- Q4 14:21WASHMyles Gaskin 1 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)17–6
- Q3 11:24WASHJoshua Perkins 27 Yd pass from Marvin Hall (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)10–6
- Q2 0:00USCAlex Wood 21 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 9:54WASHCameron Van Winkle 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:47USCAlex Wood 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJake Browning 16/32, 137 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMyles Gaskin 22 CAR, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoshua Perkins 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCody Kessler 16/29, 156 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTre Madden 17 CAR, 120 YDS
- RecJuJu Smith-Schuster 6 REC, 82 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00WASH +34%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 38
- Q4 14:21WASH +30%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
- Q3 11:24WASH +28%
Marvin Hall pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 27 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
- Q4 12:02USC +27%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 7:33WASH +21%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 8 yds to the Wash 36
- Q4 10:53WASH +17%
Jake Browning sacked by Porter Gustin and Scott Felix for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 8
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. USC?
Washington 17, USC 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WASH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Total yards | 346 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 156 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 1-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 8-62 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:10 WASH punt on 4th & 1 at WASH 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:02USCRonald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–12
- Q4 14:21WASHMyles Gaskin 1 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)17–6
- Q3 11:24WASHJoshua Perkins 27 Yd pass from Marvin Hall (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)10–6
- Q2 0:00USCAlex Wood 21 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 9:54WASHCameron Van Winkle 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:47USCAlex Wood 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1926, WASH Elo 1625 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -14.4 (83% to win) — 2.6 points clear of WASH's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #9 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #19 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →USC leads 52–32–4 · Washington has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| WASH | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.1 (#21) | CORE overall | +17.9 (#15) |
| +4 / -12 | offense / defense | +11 / -7 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 2.59 |
| 1.48 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →